For nearly two years, commercial real estate has lived in a fog of uncertainty. Elevated rates, inflation pressure, and valuation resets kept many investors watching from the sidelines. But as we close out 2025, the data is no longer ambiguous: the CRE market has regained its footing, and the setup for 2026 is the strongest we’ve seen since before the pandemic.
Below is what today’s numbers really say and what it means for accredited investors focused on multifamily.
The Capital Markets Are Waking Up
Three forces: lower rates, improving fundamentals, and surging refinancing activity are reshaping the landscape:
- Loan originations jumped 48% YoY through Q3 to $587B, up from $395B in 2024.
- Refis now make up 55% of all originations, unlocking transaction flow that had been frozen since 2022.
- Bank lending is up 85%, CMBS issuance is up 37%, and insurance/agency lenders have expanded 29% and 41%.
This isn’t theoretical optimism, this is capital deployment at scale. When lenders return, transactions follow. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing.
Sales Activity Is Rebounding…Quietly but Powerfully
Investment sales climbed 19% YoY through Q3 to $350B, with two-thirds of transactions under $100M prime territory for sophisticated private investors.
Meanwhile:
- 70% of properties sold in September traded above their prior purchase price, with an average gain of $10.2M.
- Assets bought for $60–75M in 2018–2019 are now exiting at $90–100M.
While media headlines focus on distress, the transactional reality tells a very different story: appreciation is happening right now.
Multifamily Remains Best-in-Class
Despite pricing tightness and pockets of oversupply, multifamily still leads all property types with $42B in Q3 volume (up 10% YoY).
Why? Because the fundamentals—household formation, rent demand, affordability gaps, and migration patterns—remain structurally strong. Even in uncertain macro conditions, people still need housing.
Meanwhile:
- Office and retail, the sectors many wrote off, are actually leading the rebound with sales up 25–29%.
- Institutional buyers are reentering office in major markets, rising from 9% of acquisition volume in 2023 to nearly 40% in 2025.
The recovery is broader and more durable than expected.
A Recovery Rooted in Operations, Not Hype
Unlike past cycles driven by cap-rate compression or cheap debt, this one is powered by operational performance:
- Renewed leasing momentum.
- Stronger rent collections.
- Stabilizing occupancy.
- Better reporting and asset-level discipline.
- Technology and AI reshaping underwriting, asset management, and deal sourcing.
In many ways, 2026 is poised to reward execution, not speculation.
What’s Fueling 2026 Momentum
1. Rates Are Declining And Confidence Is Rising
Two consecutive Fed cuts (down to 3.75–4%) haven’t transformed the market overnight, but they have created psychological momentum. Every 25–50 bps of relief improves refinancing math, cap stacks, and buyer confidence.
2. Debt Maturities Are Creating Forced Opportunities
The 2025–2027 maturity wave is massive. Many owners who held through high-rate environments will be forced to refi or sell, creating targeted opportunities for well-capitalized sponsors.
3. The Pricing Reset Already Happened
Most of the value correction occurred in 2023–2024. Investors waiting for “the bottom” may have already missed it. As CBRE forecasts 16–17% transaction growth by year-end, with double-digit gains throughout 2026, the early-mover advantage is fading.
4. Technology Is Separating Winners From Everyone Else
Big data, AI-enhanced underwriting, and integrated platforms are no longer competitive edges, they’re necessities. The groups deploying technology effectively are securing deals others never see.
What This Means for Accredited Investors
For accredited investors, the current environment offers a rare opening. Multifamily remains one of the most resilient asset classes, supported by strong demand, steady rent fundamentals, and long-term demographic tailwinds. Even with elevated rates, housing continues to outperform most sectors.
At the same time, the rebound in capital markets means more attractive deals are emerging, especially in the sub-$100M range where private investors have a clear advantage. Many of these opportunities are off-market or relationship-driven, favoring investors aligned with experienced, well-capitalized operators.
Success in this phase of the cycle will come from preparation and execution. Investors who partner with sponsors that have strong lender relationships, disciplined asset management, and access to early-stage deal flow will be positioned to capture outsized returns as the market continues to thaw.
The Bottom Line
Commercial real estate isn’t waiting for a comeback, it’s already shifting. Transaction activity is rising, confidence is returning, and multifamily fundamentals remain solid as we move toward 2026.
This moment offers meaningful asymmetry: uncertainty keeps some buyers on the sidelines, yet the underlying fundamentals support future upside. That gap won’t last forever. As more capital re-enters the market, competition and pricing will tighten.
For accredited investors, the next 12–18 months may be one of the most favorable windows of the cycle. Those who position capital now, before the recovery becomes obvious, will be best positioned to benefit from the momentum already forming beneath the surface.
When You’re Ready… Here’s 3 Ways We Can Help:
- Connect With Our Team: Whether you’re exploring passive real estate for the first time or you’re a seasoned investor looking for a trusted partner, our team is available to answer your questions. Schedule a confidential strategy call to learn more about our investment philosophy, current opportunities, and how we help investors achieve income, growth, and tax efficiency.
- Join Our Private Investor Portal: Gain exclusive access to our current offerings and ongoing pipeline of multifamily investments. Inside, you’ll find detailed financials, market insights, and structured deal overviews—all designed to help you make informed, confident decisions about where to place your capital.
- Review Our Investment Strategy: Get a clear understanding of how we source, underwrite, and manage multifamily assets. Our strategy is built around long-term wealth creation, consistent passive income, and disciplined risk management. Learn what sets us apart and why sophisticated investors choose to partner with us.
