For the better part of the last two years, multifamily real estate investing has been a story of patience. Record supply hitting the market, rent growth flattening out, and investors sitting on the sidelines waiting for clarity. A lot of people called it a rough patch. We called it a setup.
Q1 2026 is starting to confirm that.
For the first time in three quarters, net absorption outpaced construction completions, meaning demand for apartment units actually got ahead of new supply entering the market. That is not a small thing. It is the kind of structural shift that does not make headlines the day it happens, but that investors look back on six to twelve months later and wish they had paid closer attention to when they had the chance.
The national vacancy rate came in at 4.8%, down 20 basis points from where it finished Q4 2025. And while that number sits slightly above where it was a year ago, the direction of travel matters more than the absolute figure right now. Markets move on momentum, and the momentum has turned.
Rent Growth and Absorption Are Normalizing
Rent growth, though modest, is holding its ground. The average monthly rent across the country now sits at $2,217, representing a 0.2% increase year-over-year and a 0.4% bump quarter-over-quarter. That quarterly gain lines up almost exactly with pre-pandemic Q1 seasonality, which, for those paying attention, is actually a meaningful signal. It suggests the market is not just stabilizing, it is normalizing. The noise of the post-pandemic distortion is clearing, and what is emerging underneath looks a lot like a healthy, functional multifamily cycle.
Absorption totaled 78,100 units in Q1. That is down from 120,000 units in the first quarter of last year, but the comparison that matters more is what happened in Q4 2025, when absorption went negative by 1,500 units. Swinging from negative absorption to 78,100 units in a single quarter is not incremental progress. That is demand coming back with conviction. Sixty-three of the 69 markets tracked by CBRE posted positive net absorption, and 58 of those improved from where they were in Q4. The breadth of that recovery tells you this is not a story about one or two gateway markets carrying the weight. It is broad-based.
The Supply Pipeline Is Shrinking
On the supply side, the pipeline is continuing to shrink in a way that matters for the medium-term outlook. Construction completions totaled 58,100 units in Q1, down 30% from the same period last year, and further declines are expected through the remainder of 2026. This is the natural consequence of the pullback in starts we saw through 2024 and into 2025. What gets started today takes two-plus years to deliver. The decisions developers made when capital dried up and debt got expensive are now showing up in the completion numbers. Fewer units coming online means the absorption gains we are seeing today are not running against a stiff headwind. They are running into open space.
Multifamily Real Estate Investing Activity… What Transaction Volume Is Telling Us
Where things remain measured is on the investment side. Q1 multifamily transaction volume came in at $29.5 billion, down 6% from a year ago. Individual asset sales held up relatively well, off just 2.7% at $25.6 billion, while portfolio sales took a harder hit, falling 23% to $3.9 billion. That spread tells an interesting story. Buyers willing to underwrite individual assets one at a time are engaging. The larger, more institutional portfolio trades that require broader consensus on pricing and rate direction are still working through some hesitation. That gap will close. It always does. And when it does, volume tends to move quickly.
What This Means for Axxis Investors
What does all of this mean for Axxis and for our investors?
It means the thesis we have been executing on, acquiring well-located assets in markets with durable demand drivers, managing through a period of supply-driven pressure, and positioning for the inevitable rebalancing, is playing out the way disciplined operators expect it to. The patience part of the cycle is not over, but the worst of it is likely behind us. The data is starting to stack up in favor of those who stayed the course.
Markets reward preparation, not reaction. We have been preparing. And as the fundamentals continue to shift in our favor, we remain focused on protecting what we have built and staying ready to move when the right opportunities present themselves.
As always, we appreciate your trust and partnership. If you have questions about what this means for your specific investment with us, do not hesitate to reach out.
When You’re Ready… Here’s 3 Ways We Can Help
- Connect With Our Team: Whether you’re exploring passive real estate for the first time or you’re a seasoned investor looking for a trusted partner, our team is available to answer your questions. Schedule a confidential strategy call to learn more about our investment philosophy, current opportunities, and how we help investors achieve income, growth, and tax efficiency.
- Join Our Private Investor Portal: Gain exclusive access to our current offerings and ongoing pipeline of multifamily investments. Inside, you’ll find detailed financials, market insights, and structured deal overviews—all designed to help you make informed, confident decisions about where to place your capital.
- Review Our Investment Strategy: Get a clear understanding of how we source, underwrite, and manage multifamily assets. Our strategy is built around long-term wealth creation, consistent passive income, and disciplined risk management. Learn what sets us apart and why sophisticated investors choose to partner with us.






